استخدام الاساليب الكمية للتنبؤ بمبيعات مؤسسة اقتصادية

Abstract

sales forecasting can be considered one of the basic and important operations to the company because of their significance in directing plans, programs, and policies inside the company. Quantitative methods are considered more accurate in the process of predictions because it helps in making a better expectations about the events that are going to happen in the future. The most important tactic is the Box–Jenkins methodology for time series analysis because it considers one of the successful predictive models; it differentiates with an accuracy in its diagnosis to the phenomena and the economic variables, and also its importance in making a chart of courses and plans of the economic institutions. In this study, the Box–Jenkins methodology was used to predict the products sales (Diesel, Petrol) to the commercial branch of NAFTAL in Adrar from 2010 to 2014. We depended on Eview8 program to predict the sales of the first six months in 2015. Then testing these predictions after comparing it to the actual values. The results showed a rapprochement between the actual values and the predicted ones. So we concluded the effectiveness of this method, and to give it to the enterprise administrators to use it in further studies and predictions.